But let me offer another thought. To paraphrase Jefferson, I hold that a little chaos every now and then can be a good thing. It just has to be fair chaos. You do not want delegates and observers coming away from the convention feeling that they were “robbed” or that the process wasn’t fair or that the rules were somehow controlled by the powers that be.
The mood of the country right now is that people are very concerned that the establishment is hogging the show, and they aren’t very happy with the direction of the country. If the power and hubris of the political elite were on display at a national convention where everyone could see them, it would be a public relations disaster. It would make absolutely no difference if in their heart of hearts the leaders of the national Republican Party were as anti-establishment as you could find. Perception controls reality. If, however, people see an open process that is fair and clear, even if it’s also chaotic and raucous, they may not like how the game ends, but they will walk away saying “Just wait till next time.” And then work to get their nominee elected.
It is up to RNC Chairman Reince Priebus to make sure the process is perceived as fair. I know, the pressure to have the convention be perfectly scripted and run smoothly is enormous. And if some candidate gets 50%+1 going into the first roll-call vote, then so be it. But if the nomination isn’t settled on the first vote, then there needs to be a truly open convention.
Frankly, I think a brokered convention would be a godsend for the Republican Party, which has become rather calcified. The media would do nothing but cover the possibility of such an outcome for a full two months prior to the convention. The country would get to meet a slice of America in the form of individual delegates who actually look like them – fellow citizens trying to figure out how to do the right thing and doing it enthusiastically. The back-and-forth and give-and-take would be phenomenal. And instead of the obligatory two or three hours in the evening for a few nights, there would be wall-to-wall coverage during the convention. Taking a cue from Donald Trump, you can’t buy media that good. No matter who the Democratic Party nominee turned out to be, their air would just get sucked out of the room.
Just for the record, there are no more powerbrokers who can speak for whole delegations. There are no smoke-filled rooms. There are certainly people who are influential in every state, and certainly people who will be influential on a national level with a certain following; but the delegates on that floor will have all played political hardball a few times, or they wouldn’t be there. They could be persuaded, or they might change their minds, but they will not be controlled. Or bought.
Maybe one candidate catches fire during the first few state primaries and then goes on to roll it up – just as in every election in the recent past. But then again, maybe not. I think it would be fascinating if the outcome came down to California, whose primary has not made a real difference for a long time. Further, the leading candidate could go to the number two and ask if he would like to be vice president. Think Ronald Reagan and George Bush senior. Or there could be all manner of other horse-trading prior to the convention.
In closing, if you haven’t had enough politics already, then I suggest you read Tucker Carlson’s gonzo piece called “Donald Trump Is Shocking, Vulgar and Right.” It’s not an endorsement of Trump but rather an indictment of the Republican Party. I was talking with Newt Gingrich this week, and he sent me this link in the middle of our conversation. He said it was the best explanation of the Trump phenomenon that he has read. I think he’s right. It may be hard for you to believe, but Newt is pretty anti-establishment. I won’t tell you how he thinks it will turn out. Unless he is right, and then I will tell you he told me so. (He will have an analysis of the Iowa caucuses on his website on Wednesday. I find his political analysis to be thoughtful and candid.)
I know I went on a little bit of an anti-Trump tirade over his Muslim comment a few weeks ago, and I still think his remark was deplorable, but I must admit that I would no longer vote for Clinton over Trump. His speech last night in Iowa was very classy. In fact, were Trump to win, I might even be an enthusiastic supporter. Because he might just turn the system upside down. So would Cruz and several of the other candidates.
I hold that a little chaos every now and then is a good thing.
Your wondering how New Hampshire will turn out analyst,
John Mauldin
Follow John Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines in his free publication, Thoughts from the Frontline. The publication explores developments overlooked by mainstream news and analyzes challenges and opportunities on the horizon.