“Our forecast for the full first quarter on a reported basis will be down on the high-teens,” Pinto said at the bank’s investor day in February, citing “a very tough comparison” to the year-earlier quarter in the currency and emerging-markets businesses. “We had a slow start in the equities business, and overall, we see lower, weaker client activity.”
On the bright side, Buckingham’s Mitchell said he’s expecting positive comments from bank executives about underwriting pipelines. Jefferies Financial Group Inc., which reported results for its fiscal first quarter in March, said investment-banking activity had rebounded last month.
Loan Growth
Commercial and industrial lending “has again led the charge for the larger banks,” David Long, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc., wrote in a note last week. Analysts are expecting strength across the industry, with business loans growing about 10 percent, according to Atlantic Equities analyst John Heagerty.
On the consumer side, mortgage rates fell in the first quarter, offering a reprieve for home lenders who have been burdened by the end of the refinancing boom and heightened competition from non-banks. Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer John Shrewsberry said in February that competition is starting to ease in the business with the exit of some mortgage originators.
“There has been a notable uptick in mortgage refinancing since the start of 2019,” Heagerty at Atlantic Equities wrote in a note to clients last month. “Consumer loan growth appears to have rebounded.”
Risks
In his annual letter to shareholders last week, JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said growing risks include Fed policy, an economic slowdown in Germany, Brexit and the U.S.-China trade spat. That’s all been fueling more pessimism about the global economy, Dimon said.
This quarter will be “less about the results than about the revenue outlook,” Saul Martinez, an analyst at UBS Group AG, wrote in a note to clients.
This article provided by Bloomberg News.