A basket of the most-shorted stocks soared 18% over the four days through Tuesday, dealing a fresh blow to hedge funds who boosted bearish wagers during a 10-month rout and turning them into forced buyers. Their total short covering over the stretch hit levels not seen since the retail-driven squeeze in January 2021, data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s prime broker show.
For a third time this year, the S&P 500 mounted a recovery of more than 10%. Such counter-trend rallies have spurred demand for bullish call options from those who have been defensively positioned in the market. As a result, the index’s skew -- the relative cost of puts versus calls -- this month fell to the lowest level in more than a decade.
“Market screams back up. You’re at risk of losing your job because you’re going to underperform everybody,” said Dennis Davitt, founder of Millbank Dartmoor Portsmouth LLC, an investment firm that specializes in volatility strategies. “So the remedy for that is just by turning some of your equities into cash and then buying upside calls as a stock replacement.”
The Fed-induced market gyrations are encouraging investors to go all-in on options to place bullish and bearish bets alike. About 46 million contracts have changed hands each day in November, on course for the busiest month on record, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Helping drive the boom is the frenzy trading in derivatives maturing within 24 hours. Such contracts made up a whopping 44% of S&P 500 options volume in the past month, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
For now, the fireworks following the CPI shock appeared to be dying down. The S&P 500 has moved less than 1% for six straight sessions on a closing basis, the longest stretch of calm since January.
To Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, the tranquility may not last. For one, the cross-asset rally has contributed to easing financial conditions that’s working against Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s goal to slow the economy.
“We may get some buyer’s remorse over the next few weeks as investors fret over a potentially hot jobs number and any whiff of hawkishness from Powell and the Fed,” said Bailey. “Investors are coming up for air after a nice run since mid-October. The next question is, are we pricing in too much good news?”
--With assistance from Melissa Karsh and Vildana Hajric.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.