Beacon sees a higher risk of a “Trump-induced event, akin to the government shutdown last year, in order to distract attention from the impeachment headlines.”
Evercore ISI, Sarah Bianchi
“Putting the focus on impeachment is an enormous undertaking that makes everything else harder,” Bianchi wrote, including prescription drug pricing legislation and the USMCA.
As for whether it matters for the election, Bianchi said “impeachment politics are tricky and unpredictable. It is very possible that it will just further put each side in their respective camps and further polarize the country. What it does to the moderate middle of the road voters is very hard to say.”
Cowen, Chris Krueger
On Tuesday, Krueger said he expected the House will impeach Trump, while the Senate won’t convict, a scenario he called “Bill Clinton 2.0,” adding that “this could all be over by the end of 2019.”
RBC, Brian Abrahams, biotech analyst
Investors may want to come back to biotech as drug pricing probably won’t be overhauled now, Abrahams wrote in a note. An impeachment investigation may create “a sustained impasse,” he said, and “reaffirm the low likelihood of draconian price cuts and over time improve investor confidence returning to the biotech space.”
RBC, Adam Cole, currency strategist
“We would note that this is only a small step on the road to impeachment, which would ultimately require a 2/3 majority in the Republican-controlled Senate and that it is not clear yet whether the House will vote to endorse the inquiry,” Cole wrote. He flagged Betfair’s probability of Trump leaving before the end of his first term jumping to 22% from 14%, which was “still far below levels that prevailed in the early part of his presidency.”
“Beyond the knee-jerk reaction to rising uncertainty, it is also unclear that diminishing risk of a returned Trump would be negative for risk assets.”
--With assistance from Cristin Flanagan.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.