Remember: So long as only two candidates are winning delegates, one of them is going to reach 50% plus one. Most candidates without a decent chance to be nominated drop out before the real delegate accumulation stage begins. It’s hard for things to be so balanced that as many as three, let alone four or five, have a realistic chance to win after the early primaries and caucuses. So probably only two candidates will win delegates, and one will have enough.
The big exception would be a protest candidate who remains in the race without a chance to win, but who also can reach 15% in lots of places. The only one likely to do that is Bernie Sanders, and after Iowa he’s looking more like a candidate with a real chance of winning than a protest candidate.
So even when the current chaos fades, the chances of continuing chaos are certainly higher today than they were at the beginning of the week.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.