Bond industry leaders see a bleak U.S. fiscal outlook that will keep debt growing and sustain elevated long-dated Treasury yields.
Speaking during a panel discussion at the ISDA/Sifma Treasury forum in New York Wednesday, market participants said spending cuts and tax increases that would address concerns of growing Treasury debt supply remain unlikely—regardless of who wins November’s presidential election. The most worrying scenario, they said, is a clean sweep by one party taking control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.
“No matter what the election result is, when you fast forward five to 10 years, the fiscal direction is not comfortable,” said Jason Granet, chief Investment Officer at BNY Mellon.
The amount of U.S. Treasurys outstanding has grown to $27 trillion, up from about $12 trillion a decade ago. Last month, the Treasury left its quarterly issuance of longer-term debt unchanged, after boosting them the three previous quarters in moves that brought some auction sizes to record levels. While the Treasury said it sees no more increases for a least a few quarters, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that chronic U.S. deficits will lift the U.S. debt to about $48 trillion by the end of 2034.
“You have two candidates that have different spending priorities, but their overall fiscal stance is not all that different,” said Alex Schiller, head of cross-asset strategies at Bridgewater Associates. “What makes a difference is whether they have Congress with them.”
“Debt and deficits are front and center for investors,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “A GOP sweep means less willingness to address debt and deficits.” But overall, “there is very little willingness at both parties to address spending. “
The panelists, which also included Agha Mirza, managing director and global head of rates and OTC products at CME Group Inc. and Thomas Pluta, president at Tradeweb Markets, said the 10-year Treasury yield in twelve months time likely would be hovering near current levels or up to as high as 5.25%.
In February, the Congressional Budget Office projected that interest and dividends paid to individuals will rise to $327 billion this year—more than double the amount in the mid-2010s—and keep increasing each year over the coming decade. In March alone, the Treasury Department paid out about $89 billion in interest to debt holders—or roughly $2 million a minute.
The CBO also recently projected that if current laws governing revenues and spending generally remained unchanged, the federal budget deficit would increase significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, driving up federal debt. Debt held by the public would soar from 99% of GDP in 2024 to 166% of GDP in 2054—exceeding any previously recorded level and on track to increase further.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.