Mike Zigmont, author of the Zigmont Report, is a partner at New York-based Harvest Volatility Management, a hedge fund with over $10B AUM, offering volatility management solutions to its investor base worldwide. Mike has been publishing his daily newsletter (Monday-Friday) privately for the firm’s investors and his personal contacts in the investment business
since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own
2 PM
the bulls finally dominated and the S&P climbed steadily for an hour. Bears took some gains back in the final hour. We printed a small gain. Capital flow was very light at 85% so regardless of how the S&P moved today, there wasn’t much money driving it around. Today’s move is going to be quickly forgotten becausetomorrow
is the FOMC decision. The street expects a 25 bip hike with near unanimity. The big mystery is what kind of forward guidance the Fed will give. The two clues to the future hiking-path will be:- The dot-plot
- Language in the statement
unless
* inflation were to perk up. I don’t think inflation is perking up but we have to see what the Fed thinkstomorrow
. If the Fed suggests that it will continue the 3 hikes per year pace, I expect equity bulls to take over the tape. I don’t know how far they can push things but they’ll win the day.If the Fed suggests 4 hikes this year…. It’ll be a way different day.
We shall see. The decision comes out at2 PM
tomorrow
.See you then,
-Mike